Author: John J Mearsheimer, Stephen M Walter
Translator: Wang Chuanxing
Publisher: Shanghai People's Publishing House
Publication time: April 1, 2019
introduction
The United States is about to enter a presidential election year. Although I've found that it's certainly impossible to predict the outcome of the election at this stage, I've found that it's easy to anticipate some characteristics of the campaign. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!Candidates will inevitably behave differently on various domestic issues such as healthcare, abortion, same-sex marriage, taxation, education, and immigration, and there will certainly be heated debates on many foreign policy issues as well. Don't forget to share your experience!What course of action should the United States pursue in Iraq? What is the most appropriate response to the Darfur crisis, Iran's nuclear ambitions, Russia's hostility towards NATO, and China's rising power? How should the United States respond to global warming, combat terrorism, and restore its damaged international image? We have enough confidence to expect to see clear differences among candidates on issues like these and many others. What do you think about this?
However, on a topic, we also have enough confidence to expect to see those candidates speaking with the same voice.In 2008, as in other election years, serious candidates for the highest positions in the country will fully express their deep personal commitment to a foreign country - Israel - and their determination to maintain America's steadfast support for this Jewish nation Have you tried this before? Share your story!Each candidate will emphasize that they are fully aware of the multiple threats facing Israel and make it clear that if elected, the United States will continue to firmly commit to defending Israel's interests in all circumstances. No candidate is likely to criticize Israel in any significant form or suggest that the United States pursue a more balanced policy in this region. Any candidate who does so may be pushed aside. What do you think about this?
This observation can hardly be considered a bold prediction, as those hoping to climb to the presidency had already declared their support for Israel in early 2007 Let me know your thoughts in the comments!.
This process began in January, when the four potential candidates gave speeches at the annual Herzliya Conference on security issues in Israel. As Joshua Mitnick reported in Jewish Week, they "seem to be competing to see who has the loudest voice to defend this Jewish state". Have you tried this before? Share your story!
Through satellite connection, John Edwards, the 2004 Democratic vice presidential candidate, told his Israeli audience, 'Your future is our future,' and said that the bond between the United States and Israel is' unbreakable forever. '. Have you tried this before? Share your story!
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney said he was "in a country I love, with a people I love," and was aware of Israel's deep concern about Iran's possible possession of nuclear weapons. He declared, "Now is the time for the world to speak three truths: first, Iran (which may possess nuclear weapons) must be stopped; second, Iran can be stopped; third, Iran will be stopped! Have you tried this before? Share your story!
Arizona Republican Senator John McCain declared, "When it comes to defending Israel, we cannot compromise
Former Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich from Georgia told the audience, "Israel is facing its greatest danger to survival since its victory in 1967 Don't forget to share your experience!
In early February shortly thereafter,Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton from New York StateHillary Clinton holds immense power and influenceUS Israel Public Affairs CommissionAt this moment when Israel is facing such great difficulties and dangers... I've found that it's crucial that we stand with our friends, our allies, and our own values. Israel is a beacon of correctness, while its neighboring countries are shrouded in the evil acts of radicalism, extremism, authoritarianism, and terrorism Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Illinois Senator Barack Obama, one of Hillary's competitors for the Democratic presidential nominationOne month later, he delivered a speech to the audience of the US Israel Public Affairs Commission in Chicago. Obama expressed some sympathy for the past suffering of Palestinians and briefly mentioned the "suffering" of Palestinians during a campaign event in March 2007; But this cannot compare to his praise for Israel, as he clearly stated that he would never change the US Israel relationship. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Other potential presidential candidates include Kansas Republican Senator Sam Brownback and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, both of whom expressed their pro Israel views with equal or greater enthusiasm. What do you think about this?
What can be used to explain such behavior?Why are there so few differences among these potential presidents on issues related to Israel when the US Middle East policy is clearly terrible, while there are profound differences between them on almost every other important issue facing the US? Why can Israel ride for free from American presidential candidates when its own citizens often criticize its current policies? And these candidates are so willing to criticize and guide many things that other countries have done. Why do outstanding politicians in the United States show such consistent obedience to Israel, rather than any other country in the world? Don't forget to share your experience!
Some may argue that Israel is a crucial strategic asset for the United States.reallyIsrael is said to be an indispensable partner in the 'war on terror'Others may reply that providing unconditional support to Israel has a huge moral reason, as I've found that it's the only country in the region that "shares our common values". But neither of these views can withstand fair and objective scrutiny. The relationship between Washington and Jerusalem makes it not easier, but more difficult, to defeat terrorists who are now targeting the United States; This relationship simultaneously weakens the position of the United States and its important allies in the world. Since the Cold War has ended, Israel has become a negative asset for the United States. However, no ambitious politician intends to publicly say this, or even just raise this possibility. Have you tried this before? Share your story!
There is no compelling and logical moral reason for the uncritical and firm relationship between the United States and Israel.For the survival of Israel, there are strong moral reasons; And if Israel's survival is threatened, the United States has enough reason to promise to help it. However, considering Israel's brutal treatment of Palestinians in the occupied territories, moral considerations may require the proposition that the United States should pursue a more balanced policy towards both Israel and Palestine, and may even lean towards the Palestinian side. However, we cannot hear anyone who hopes to become president or occupy a seat in Congress express such views. Don't forget to share your experience!
The reason why American politicians are so respectful and obedient is due to the political power of the Israeli lobbying group. Don't forget to share your experience!This lobbying group is a loose alliance of individuals and organizations actively engaged in promoting US foreign policy towards a pro Israel direction. Have you tried this before? Share your story!
As we will describe in detail, the Israeli lobbying group is not a single unified movement with central leadership; It is certainly not a small conspiracy group that "controls" US foreign policy, or a conspiracy. It is just a powerful interest group, consisting of both Jewish and non Jewish members. Its recognized goal is to impose Israel's reasons on the United States and influence American foreign policy in a way that its members believe will benefit this Jewish state. Don't forget to share your experience!
Although the various groups that make up this lobbying group share a common desire to promote the "special relationship" between the United States and Israel, they are not always in agreement on any issue. Just like the efforts made by lobbying and interest groups of other ethnic groups, the activities of various members of the Israeli lobbying group are also a legitimate form of democratic political participation; They are largely consistent with the long-standing tradition of American interest group activities. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
As the Israeli lobbying group has gradually become the most powerful interest group in the United States, candidates running for high office are closely monitoring its desires. Don't forget to share your experience!In the United States, the individuals and groups that make up this lobbying group are deeply concerned about Israel, and they do not want American politicians to criticize it, even when criticism may have legitimate reasons and may be beneficial to Israel's interests. What do you think about this?On the contrary, these groups hope that the United States will treat Israel as its 51st stateDemocrats, like Republicans, fear the power of this lobbying group. They all understand that any politician who challenges the policies of the lobbying group has a very slim chance of becoming president. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Part One: The United States, Israel, and Israeli Lobby Groups
Chapter 1: The Most Human Sponsor

Chapter 2: Israel: Strategic Assets or Strategic Burdens?

Chapter 2: The increasingly untenable moral reasons

What is the 'Israeli lobbying group' in Chapter 4?

Chapter 5: Policy Manipulation Process

Chapter 6: Control of Public Discourse

Part 2: Israeli lobbying groups in action

Part 2 Introduction

Chapter 7: The Israeli Lobby Group and the Palestinians

Chapter 8: Iraq and the Dream of Transforming the Middle East

Chapter 9: Targeting Syria

Chapter 10: Targeting Iran

Chapter 11: The Israeli Lobby Group and the Second Lebanon War

What should be done with the conclusion?

Excerpt:

Chapter 1: The Largest Sponsor

On July 26, 1994, whenIsraeli Prime Minister Yitzhak RabinWhen Yitzhak Rabin appeared at the joint session of the two houses of Congress, his enthusiastic words had no typical features, 'We are not only grateful to you.'. When he extended his comments to the "delightful American people", Rabin stressed that "we cannot express our gratitude in words for your generous support, understanding and cooperation, which is unparalleled in modern history..." Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Two years later, the tragedy of Rabin's assassination occurred, and one of his successorsBenjamin Netanyahu(Benjamin Netanyahu) Standing at the same place, he expressed his gratitude similar to Rabin's: "The United States has given Israel - how can I tell you about it? In addition to political and military support, the United States has also given Israel generous and noble assistance in the economic field. Thanks to the help of the United States, Israel has become a powerful modern country." He said to his audience: "When I say this to you today, I know that I am saying 'Thank you, American people' on behalf of every Israeli and every Jewish in the world." Don't forget to share your experience!

These statements - and others like them - are not just typical fancy words spoken by visiting foreign officials. The words spoken by Rabin and Netanyahu, Don't forget to share your experience!Accurately described the extraordinary support that the United States has provided to this Jewish state for a long time.

The money of American taxpayers is used to subsidize the development of the Israeli economy and rescue it from those financial crises. The military assistance from the United States strengthened Israel's power during the war and maintained its military dominance in the Middle East. During both wartime and peacetime, Washington provided extensive diplomatic support to Israel and protected it from the adverse consequences of its actions. What do you think about this?

Due to the Camp David Accords or the peace treaties between Israel, Egypt, and Jordan that clearly relied on commitments to increase US aid, the United States has also been a major factor in the ongoing Arab Israeli peace process. Compared to any other country, the United States is Israel's largest sponsor. What do you think about this?

economic aid

The most obvious indicator of Israel's advantageous position is the total amount of foreign aid it receives from American taxpayers.For example, in 2005, the direct economic and military aid provided by the United States to Israel reached 154 billion US dollars (in 2005 US dollars), Let me know your thoughts in the comments!Most of them are composed of direct grants rather than loansAs discussed below, the actual total is significantly higher than this number because the direct aid conditions provided by the United States are exceptionally favorable, and the United States also offers material aid to Israel that is not included in its foreign aid budget. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Because such a level of support for Israel is hardly questioned today, I've found that it's easy for people to forget, Don't forget to share your experience!The current 'special relationship' between the United States and Israel only emerged decades after the founding of Israel.

Before World War II, although American leaders occasionally verbally expressed support for the Zionist goal of establishing a Jewish homeland, no president made significant efforts to advance this goal. Have you tried this before? Share your story!

WhenHarry S TrumanPresident Harry S. Truman decided to support the United Nations' 1947 partition plan and immediately recognized Israel after it declared independence in May 1948. He did play a key role in supporting the establishment of a Jewish homeland. However, Have you tried this before? Share your story!The Truman and Eisenhower administrationsAlso aware that holding onto Israel too tightly would threaten the relationship between the United States and the Arab world, tempting the Soviet Union to gain an opportunity to increase its influence in the Middle East. Have you tried this before? Share your story!

Therefore, inDuring the 1950sThe United States seeks to take a middle ground between Israel and its Arab neighbors; The economic assistance provided by the United States to Israel is moderate, and almost no direct military aid is provided to Israel. Israel's requests to purchase weapons from the United States and to receive security guarantees from the United States were politely rejected. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

During this period, there were several sharp diplomatic differences between Washington and Jerusalem.

When Israel ignored the demands of the United Nations and built a canal in September 1953, diverting water from the Jordan River, What do you think about this?John Foster Dulles Secretary of State John Foster Dulles immediately announced the termination of US diplomatic aid to Israel. The threat had an immediate effect: Israel agreed to halt its water diversion plan on October 27th, and US aid resumed accordingly. Don't forget to share your experience!

Persuading Israel to withdrawThe 1956 Suez Canal WarThe threat of stopping US aid also played a crucial role in the territorial issue that China seized from Egypt.

Israeli Prime Minister David Ben Gurion understood that war was an opportunity for territorial expansion, so he began discussions with Britain and France - the main instigators of the attack on Egypt - before the war, Don't forget to share your experience!Suggest that Israel and Iraq separate parts of Jordan and Lebanon and give them to Israel, allowing Israel to control the Straits of Tiran in the Sinai Peninsula Have you tried this before? Share your story!.

Due to the fact that both Britain and France are fully focused on Egypt, they are not interested in this grand plan. However, in several statements made by Ben Gurion after the Israeli Defense Forces conquered the Sinai Peninsula, including a speech in parliament on November 7th, he believed that the 1949 ceasefire agreement was no longer valid and that Israel intended to retain the land it had just acquired. When Eisenhower threatened to stop all public and private aid to Israel, Ben Gurion immediately backed down and promised to withdraw from the occupied land "in principle" in exchange for sufficient security guarantees for Israel. Don't forget to share your experience!

Later, Israel rallied support for itself in the United States, which weakened congressional support for Eisenhower and led to him giving a nationwide televised speech to defend his actions. Have you tried this before? Share your story!

In the spring of 1957, Israel finally withdrew from the territories it had occupied, on the condition that its borders in the Gaza Strip were secure and its freedom of navigation rights in the Strait of Tiran were guaranteed. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Late 1950sThe US Israel relationship has warmed up, butkennedy administration At that time,The United States has truly committed to Israel's military security for the first time.

In fact, in December 1962, Kennedy toldIsraeli Foreign Minister Golda MeirGolda Meir The 'special relationship' that the United States has with Israel in the Middle East can only be compared to its relationship with Britain in a wide range of world affairs. He continued, "In my experience I've found that it's very clear that if there is an invasion of Israel, the United States will come to support Israel. We have this ability, and I've found that it's constantly increasing What do you think about this?

Shortly thereafter,Kennedy authorized the sale of the first major weapon to Israel in 1963, the Hawk antiaircraft missilesThis shift reflects many strategic considerations, such as balancing Soviet arms sales to Egypt, dispelling Israel's nuclear ambitions, and encouraging Israeli leaders to respond well to US peace initiatives; However, skilled Israeli diplomacy, the influence of several pro Israel advisers, and Kennedy's desire to maintain the support of Jewish voters and donors also played a role in his decision. What do you think about this?

The sale of Hawker anti-aircraft missiles opened the door for several other weapon transactions, the most notable of which was the sale of over 200 M48A battlefield tanks in 1964. Don't forget to share your experience!In order to cover up the involvement of the United States in this arms sale and limit the reaction of this event in the Arab world, these tanks were transported by the Federal Republic of Germany to Israel, while the Federal Republic of Germany received alternative weapons from the United States. Don't forget to share your experience!

However,As for the absolute amount of US aid to Israel, the real mutation occurred in the Six Day War that followed in June 1967 Don't forget to share your experience!.

From 1949 to 1965, the United States provided approximately $63 million in annual aid to Israel, of which over 95% was economic and food aid; Between 1966 and 1970, the annual aid increased to 102 million US dollars; In 1971, US aid surged to $634.5 million - approximately 85% of which was military aid; In the Yom Kippur War of 1973, also known as the October War, the amount of aid was five times that of 1971. Have you tried this before? Share your story!

In 1976, Israel became the largest recipient of foreign aid from the United States each year, and this position has remained to this day. Have you tried this before? Share your story!During this period, support for Israel shifted from loans to direct grants, with the majority of it being military aid from the United States rather than economic or technological support. Don't forget to share your experience!

According to Clyde Mark of the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the official weapons research agency of the United States Congress:“Israel prefers aid in the form of loans rather than grants to avoid a US military delegation supervising grant projects in Israel. Have you tried this before? Share your story!Since 1974, some or all of the military aid provided by the United States to Israel has been in the form of loans, and the United States has waived the requirement for loan repayment. Technically speaking, aid is called a loan, but military aid is actually a grant Don't forget to share your experience!

Israel currently receives approximately $3 billion in direct foreign aid from the United States each year, which accounts for about 1/6 of the US direct foreign aid budget and approximately 2% of Israel's gross domestic product. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

In recent years, approximately 75% of the US aid to Israel has been military in nature, with the remaining portion being broken down into various forms of economic aid. What do you think about this?If calculated based on per capita GDP, this level of foreign aid is equivalent to a direct subsidy of $500 per year to each Israeli. Compared to this, Egypt, which ranks second in receiving foreign aid from the United States, only receives $20 per person; Poor countries like Pakistan and Haiti receive an average of only $5 and $27 per person in foreign aid, respectively. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Jerusalem and Washington agreed to gradually cease US economic aid to Israel starting from 1997.Since fiscal year 1999, the US Congress has been reducing economic aid to Israel by $12 million annually. This reduction step has been compensated through a parallel plan in which the United States pledged to increase military aid by $60 million annually, as well as a package plan in which Congress voted to support additional aid. The parallel plan for military aid and the package of additional aid include $1.2 billion to support the implementation of the 1998 Wye Agreement, in which Israel agreed to withdraw from parts of the West Bank, as well as an additional $1 billion in US foreign military financial assistance to help Israel prepare for the Iraq War in 2003. Don't forget to share your experience!

$3 billion per year is already generous enough, but I've found that it's hardly the entirety of the aid reality. As pointed out above, a significant amount of other benefits that Israel received were omitted from the prescribed $3 billion, therefore, the aforementioned US support for Israel is significantly discounted from actual support. In fact, Lee Hamilton, a Democratic congressman from Indiana, told reporters in 1991 that Israel was one of the three countries that received aid in "actual amounts far exceeding commonly cited numbers," stating that the actual amount exceeded $4.3 billion annually. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!