Author: [English]Mustafa Suleyman, Michael Ba Michael Bhaskar

Translator: Jia Haibo

Publisher: CITIC Publishing Group

Publication time: October 2014

Content Introduction:


Artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum computing... We are approaching a critical juncture in human history that will determine the future direction of human destiny. We are surrounded by artificial intelligence, and everything in our lives will change. Artificial intelligence will organize our lives, run our businesses, and manage core government services. We will live in an energy rich world with DNA printers, quantum computers, and robotic assistants. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


As co-founder of the groundbreaking artificial intelligence company DeepMind and CEO of Microsoft Artificial Intelligence, author Mustafa Suleiman has always been at the center of this wave. He believes that the next 10 years will be defined by this powerful and rapidly spreading new technology. In this book, Suleiman uses an easy to understand, calm and sharp writing style to demonstrate how these forces will create enormous prosperity and threaten nation states as the foundation of the global order. He not only guides us to understand the history of radical technological change, but also leads us to face profound social challenges. What do you think about this?


This book provides us with a realistic sedative, logically describing the current technological impact, while also being innovative and interesting, thought-provoking. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


Author Profile:

© Chris Wilson


Mustafa Suleyman


CEO of Microsoft Artificial Intelligence.


I co founded artificial intelligence company DeepMind with Demis Hassabis and later served as Vice President of Artificial Intelligence Products and Policy at Google. Have you tried this before? Share your story!


In 2022, Infection AI was co founded with LinkedIn co-founder Reed Hoffman and others. The company received up to $1.3 billion in investment and its valuation surpassed $4 billion. Have you tried this before? Share your story!


In 2023 and 2024, he was twice selected for the Global "Top 100 AI Influential Figures" list published by Time magazine. Don't forget to share your experience!


Michael Bhaskar


Author, digital publisher, consultant, and entrepreneur, who has written for publications such as The Guardian, Financial Times, and Wired.

catalogue

Recommended Preface 1/Xue Lan VII

Recommended Preface 2/Zhang Qi XI

Key words of the era of giant waves XV

Preface XIX


Chapter 1: Suppression is Impossible 001

Wave 001

Dilemma 004

Trap 009

Argument 014


Part 1 Technical Personnel


Chapter 2 Endless Diffusion 021

Engine 021

The general technology wave: the rhythm of history 024

Diffusion is the norm 029

From vacuum tube to nanometer: rapid diffusion 032


Chapter 3: Containing Problems 037

Revenge Effect 037

Containment is the foundation 039

Have we ever said 'no'? 041

Is nuclear technology an exception? 045

Technical Animal 050


Part Two: The Next Wave


Chapter 4 Intelligent Technology 057

Welcome to the Machine World 057

AlphaGo and the Beginning of the Future 059

From atoms to bits and then to genes 061

Cambrian Explosion 063

Not just trendy words 065

The Spring of Artificial Intelligence: Deep Learning Becomes Mature 066

Artificial intelligence is sweeping the world 069

Auto Complete Everything: The Rise of Big Language Models 071

Human brain level artificial intelligence model 074

Efficient again, using less to control more 078

Perception Emergence: Machine Expression 081

Beyond Super Intelligence 087

Ability: Turing Test in the New Era 088


Chapter 5 Life Technology 093

DNA Scissors: CRISPR Revolution 094

DNA Printer: Revitalization of Synthetic Biology 098

The Release of Biological Creativity 100

Artificial Intelligence in the Age of Synthetic Life 104


Chapter 6: The Broad Wave 109

Robot technology is maturing 110

Quantum Hegemony 116

The Next Energy Transition 118

Wave after wave 120


Chapter 7: Four Characteristics of the Coming Technological Wave 124

Asymmetry: Great Transfer of Power 125

Super Evolution: Endless Acceleration 128

Universality: The More the Better 131

Autonomy and Others: Are Humans Still the Protagonist? one hundred and thirty-five

Gorilla Issue 138


Chapter 8: Unstoppable Driving Forces 141

National pride: strategic necessity 144

Arms race 150

Knowledge yearns for freedom 154

Million Billion Dollar Business Opportunities 159

Global Challenge 166

Individual self pursuit 172


The Failure of the Third Part of the Country


Chapter 9: Grand Contract 179

National Promise 179

Lessons from the Copenhagen World Climate Conference: The Individualized Characteristics of Politics 181

Fragile countries 185

The Political Nature of Technology: The Challenge of the Coming Technological Wave to Countries 189


Chapter 10 Vulnerability Amplifier 196

National Emergency 2.0: Examples of Asymmetric Loss of Control 196

Significantly reduced power cost of 200

Armed Robots: The New Dominator of Offensive Operations 201

Error message machine 207

State supported information attacks 210

Laboratory leakage and accidental instability 212

Debate on Automation 217


Chapter 11: The Future of the Nation 224

Stirrup 224

Centralization: Intelligent Composite Returns 227

Surveillance: Booster of Authoritarianism 235

Decentralization: Power belongs to people 238

The Coming Wave of Contradictions 245


Chapter 12: Difficulties 248

Disaster: Ultimate Failure 248

Various types of disasters 251

Cults, Madmen, and Self destructive States 257

Dystopia turns to 260

Stagnation: Another Disaster 264

What's next? two hundred and sixty-eight


Part Four: Crossing Waves


Chapter 13: Containment Must Be Possible 273

273

Regulation alone is not enough. 277

Re examining technological containment: A new grand contract 281

Before the arrival of the flood, 284


Chapter 14: 10 Key Steps towards containment 289

1. Safety: Technical Safety of the Apollo Program 290

2. Audit: Knowledge is power, power is control 297

3. The Gate of Technology: Striving for Time 301

4. Developers: Critics should also participate in the development work 303

5. Enterprise: Profit+Mission 306

6. Government: Survival, Reform, Regulation 311

7. Alliance: It's time to make a treaty 316

8. Culture: Accepting Failure Correctly 321

9. Sports: The Power of the Public 326

10. Narrow Path: Only Crossing 328


The Life of the Anthropocene 337

Thanks 345

Annotation 349


Artificial intelligence is sweeping the world

The large-scale application of artificial intelligence is in full swing. Looking around, software has penetrated into every aspect of life, helping us collect and analyze massive amounts of data. These data are being used to train artificial intelligence systems to create more efficient and accurate products in almost every aspect of our daily lives. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


At the same time, the acquisition and use of artificial intelligence have become increasingly convenient: thanks to tools and infrastructure such as Meta's PyTorch (an open-source deep learning framework) and OpenAI's application programming interfaces (APIs), non professionals can easily master cutting-edge machine learning capabilities. In addition, the 5G (fifth generation mobile communication technology) network and its ubiquitous connectivity have built a large and continuously online user base for us. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


Artificial intelligence is gradually transitioning from the demonstration phase to real-world applications.


In a few years, artificial intelligence will be able to converse, reason, and even take action in the same way as humans. Their perception system will be as sensitive as ours. This does not equate to them reaching a level of super intelligence, but they do become exceptionally powerful systems. This means that What do you think about this? Artificial intelligence will be closely integrated into our social structure and become an inseparable part of it.


Artificial intelligence is really no longer "emerging". It exists in the products, services, and devices you use every day. In various fields of life, a large number of applications are relying on technologies that were not possible 10 years ago. These technologies can help discover new drugs for treating certain difficult diseases in the context of constantly rising treatment costs. What do you think about this?


Deep learning can detect water pipe cracks, manage traffic flow, simulate fusion reactions to develop new clean energy, optimize shipping routes, and assist in designing more sustainable and functionally rich building materials. Deep learning technology is also being used to drive cars, trucks, and tractors, with the potential to create safer and more efficient transportation infrastructure. In the power and water resource systems, I've found that it's used to effectively manage scarce resources and alleviate the increasing resource pressure. What do you think about this?


Artificial intelligence systems can manage retail warehouses, provide email writing suggestions, recommend songs, detect fraudulent behavior, write stories, diagnose rare diseases, and even simulate the impact of climate change. They appear in shops, schools, hospitals, offices, courts, and homes. Nowadays, you interact with artificial intelligence many times a day; In the future, this interaction will become more frequent. In almost any aspect, artificial intelligence will make the human experience more efficient, fast, practical, and smooth. What do you think about this?


Artificial intelligence is already around us, but this is just the beginning.


Major meta issues that humanity must face in the 21st century


Beyond artificial intelligence, a broader technological revolution has emerged. In this revolution, artificial intelligence is driving the rapid advancement of emerging and powerful genetic and robotics technologies.

stay In this complex and intertwined situation of multiple technologies, progress in one field will accelerate the development of other fields, and this mutually reinforcing situation is beyond anyone's direct control. Have you tried this before? Share your story!

Obviously, if anyone can successfully replicate human intelligence, it not only means a profitable business opportunity, but also heralds a major change in human history. It will usher in a new era, bringing unprecedented opportunities, but also accompanied by unprecedented risks. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


Over the years, with the continuous advancement of technology, my concerns have also increased day by day. What should we do if this wave of technology is actually an unstoppable tsunami? Have you tried this before? Share your story!


In 2010, almost no one seriously explored artificial intelligence. Nowadays, this research task, which was once considered to belong only to a few researchers and entrepreneurs, has evolved into a grand field that attracts widespread global participation. Artificial intelligence is everywhere. We can see its presence in news reports, smartphones, stock trading, and website construction. Don't forget to share your experience!


Once these emerging technologies mature, they will quickly become popular, with prices becoming cheaper and access becoming more convenient, and they will widely penetrate into various fields of society. They will bring about remarkable medical advancements and breakthroughs in clean energy, not only generating new business opportunities, but also promoting industrial diversification and improving quality of life in almost every field we can imagine. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

However, in addition to bringing numerous benefits, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and other cutting-edge technologies will also pose worrying tail risks. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! These risks may pose a threat to the survival and security of nation states, and their impact is far-reaching enough to shake or even overturn the existing geopolitical landscape. Have you tried this before? Share your story!


Imagine, Extreme situations such as cyber attacks powered by artificial intelligence, automated wars that could lead to national destruction, artificially created pandemics, and a world dominated by seemingly powerful but unknown technologies all have the potential to become a reality driven by technology Have you tried this before? Share your story! .


Although the probability of each situation occurring is not high, the potential consequences are catastrophic. Therefore, even if the likelihood of these consequences is low, we must remain highly vigilant. Have you tried this before? Share your story!


Faced with these potential catastrophic risks, some countries may adopt highly technological authoritarian measures to mitigate the spread of these new forces. this Don't forget to share your experience! It is likely to lead to strict monitoring of personal privacy and large-scale infringement .


The strict control of technology may give rise to a dystopian global surveillance system, in which everything and individuals will be continuously monitored. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! People's desire to prevent the most extreme potential consequences provides a rationalized excuse for this monitoring system.


Equally possible is Luddite style resistance A series of protests, boycotts, and calls for a pause against new technologies may emerge. However, is it possible to abandon the research and development of new technologies and completely suspend their applications? The answer seems to be negative. Don't forget to share your experience!


Given the enormous geopolitical and commercial value brought by new technologies, I've found that it's hard to imagine anyone easily convincing countries or companies to unilaterally abandon the transformative power brought by these technologies. Moreover, attempting to prevent the development of new technologies is inherently dangerous. In history, societies with technological stagnation have often been unstable and prone to collapse. Such a society will ultimately lose the ability to solve problems and achieve progress. What do you think about this?


From the current perspective, there are significant risks involved in pursuing or avoiding new technologies. As technology becomes cheaper, more powerful, and more widespread, risks are gradually accumulating. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a safe "narrow path" among these risks to avoid falling into the dystopian state of technological authoritarianism or the disasters that may arise from technological openness. What do you think about this?


However, letting things go their own way is not a wise move. Although we are deeply concerned about technological risks, we need the enormous benefits brought by the upcoming wave of technology like never before. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! This is precisely the core dilemma we are facing: the new generation of powerful technology may eventually lead humanity towards catastrophic or dystopian situations. I firmly believe that this is a major meta issue that humanity must face in the 21st century. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


The upcoming technological wave poses a challenge to the country


Every technological wave in history has brought profound political impacts, and I've found that it's expected to remain so in the future. Have you tried this before? Share your story!

The latest technology wave is marked by the emergence of mainframe computers, desktop computers, computer software, the Internet and smart phones, and has brought immeasurable benefits to society. It has brought new tools to the modern economy, greatly driving economic growth and changing the way we acquire knowledge, entertainment, and communicate with each other. Don't forget to share your experience!


Taking social media as an example, although there are many pessimistic comments about its negative impact, we cannot ignore the numerous positive effects it brings to modern society. However, in the past decade, people have also become increasingly aware of another impact brought by technology: they have created conditions for the formation and intensification of political polarization and institutional fragility. Have you tried this before? Share your story!


Social media platforms can easily trigger our instinctive emotional reactions, and we secrete a large amount of adrenaline when we perceive threatening information. The stronger people's emotions, especially anger, the higher their activity on social media. A meta-analysis published in the journal Nature found through nearly 500 research findings that, Have you tried this before? Share your story! There is a significant correlation between the increasing use of digital media and people's distrust of politics, the rise of populist movements, the intensification of hatred, and the rise of political polarization. What do you think about this? Although correlation does not equate to causation, this review does present clear evidence that new technologies pose a serious threat to democratic systems. Don't forget to share your experience!


Technology has gradually eroded the previously stable sovereignty boundaries of nation states, opening up the global flow of population, information, ideas, experience, goods, capital, and wealth, and continuously driving this trend. Don't forget to share your experience! As we have observed, technology occupies a pivotal position in geopolitical strategy, permeating almost every aspect of human life.


Before the arrival of the new wave of technology, technology was already an important driving force for world development, but it also led to a decreasing stability of the global nation-state system. The rapid development of modern technology, high degree of globalization, wide range of applications, and enormous appeal make it difficult for any simple containment plan to succeed. Don't forget to share your experience! Technology has significant strategic value and is relied upon by billions of people. It has become a core player in human society and a powerful force that countries find difficult to control. Have you tried this before? Share your story!


Nowadays, societies that have been disrupted by previous technological waves will face challenges from new technologies such as artificial intelligence and synthetic biology. The world is not yet prepared for this upcoming wave of technology. Under current pressure, I've found that it's on the brink of collapse. Don't forget to share your experience!


There is a view that technology is "value neutral" and its political nature only stems from its usage. This viewpoint is too simplistic and practically meaningless What do you think about this? Technology did not directly 'lead' to the birth of modern states or create modern states (or any other political structures). But in this historical process, the power released by technology is by no means neutral. Don't forget to share your experience!


As technology historian Landon Wenner said, "Technology has various forms of expression and has become an important part of the human world. Its structure, processes, and changes have been deeply integrated into human consciousness, society, and politics." In other words, technology itself has political attributes. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


However, not only our leaders, but also the technology developers themselves have not fully recognized this fact. The subtle politicization of technology is ubiquitous, but often overlooked by people. We must face it squarely. Social media is the latest example, reminding us that, What do you think about this? Technology and political organization are inseparable; There is a close connection between the country and technology. This has important implications for the upcoming reality.


Technology does not simply push people in a predetermined direction. Recognizing that technology can provide people with certain abilities, or observing how technology guides us to achieve certain specific outcomes, is not naive technological determinism. Have you tried this before? Share your story!


From this perspective, technology is one of the important factors that determine the course and direction of history, but I've found that it's by no means the only factor and has never played a role in a mechanical or inherently predictable way. Technology does not directly trigger specific behaviors or outcomes, but the environment and conditions it creates do increase or decrease the likelihood of certain developments. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


War, peace, commerce, political order, and culture are always intertwined and closely linked to technology. Technology is thought, reflected in various products and services, and has a profound and lasting impact on people, social structures, the environment, and all aspects of human society. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


There is a close connection between technology and political order. The emergence of new technologies often brings significant political impacts. Just as cannons and printing technology once disrupted the social landscape, we should also believe that artificial intelligence, robotics, and synthetic biology can trigger the same changes. What do you think about this?


The future trend will mainly develop in two directions and may result in a series of intermediate outcomes.


On the one hand, the internal social structure of certain liberal democratic countries will continue to weaken and eventually evolve into“ Let me know your thoughts in the comments! zombie Government ”. These countries Although it still retains the shell of freedom, democracy, and traditional nation-state, its core functions will gradually be lost, the quality of basic services will continue to decline, and the political system will become unstable. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! In the absence of feasible alternative solutions, the situation in these countries will continue to deteriorate and their functions will become increasingly disordered. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


On the other hand, if certain elements of the upcoming technological wave are accepted without careful consideration, it may lead to an excessive expansion of state control, which in turn may give rise to even more powerful authoritarian governments than the most extreme in history Let me know your thoughts in the comments! Super Power Body Authoritarian regimes may also fall into the state of zombie governments, but they may also choose to strengthen their power control, fully utilize the strengthening effects of technology, and evolve into pure technological dictatorships. Regardless of which path is chosen, the balance that originally maintained national stability will be disrupted, plunging the country into chaos. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!


Both the collapse of the national system and the rise of authoritarian regimes are catastrophic situations. This not only poses a disaster for these countries and societies themselves, but also a huge blow to the governance of technology. We never want blind and incompetent bureaucracies, populist speculators, or powerful dictators to control those powerful new technologies. Neither of the above two development directions can help us curb the upcoming wave of technology. What do you think about this?


In this context, we should anticipate the profound impact these technologies and tools will have on the economy, nation states, and everything related to them. The grand contract between the country and the people is no longer stable, and with the surging wave of new technology, a series of new pressure factors will truly shake its foundation. Don't forget to share your experience!


Be prepared before the flood arrives


The reality is that we have not effectively curbed the development of technology in the past. If we want to achieve this now, we need to implement some new and comprehensive solutions that cover multiple aspects such as safety, ethics, regulation, and control. And so far, there is no clear name for this type of scheme, and at first glance, it may even seem impossible for such a scheme to exist. Don't forget to share your experience!


The dilemma we are facing should have been an urgent call to action. But over the years, it has been apparent that most people find this information somewhat difficult to accept. I completely understand, because when I first encountered these pieces of information, they seemed very unreal. Among the numerous discussions on artificial intelligence and regulation, Let me know your thoughts in the comments! I was surprised to find that convincing people to face many risks is much more difficult than dealing with many existing or upcoming challenges. They find it difficult to believe that these risks are neither insignificant tail risks nor fictional plots in science fiction. What do you think about this?


Before starting to explore these issues, we already face an important challenge, which is that when it comes to technology, the general public's mind is filled with a series of redundant applications. The term 'technology' often brings to mind social media platforms and wearable devices used to monitor step count and heart rate. It's hard for people to think that technology also includes irrigation systems that are crucial for global food supply, as well as newborn life support equipment. actually, Let me know your thoughts in the comments! The role of technology goes far beyond storing selfies, it represents the accumulation of world culture and wisdom. Technology is not a niche field, I've found that it's the core that dominates human life. Don't forget to share your experience!


How to find common ground in conflicting agendas? China and the United States have differences in restricting the development of artificial intelligence. Meta Corporation in the United States does not agree with the view that 'social media is a problem'. Artificial intelligence researchers and virologists believe that their work is an important part of understanding and preventing disasters, rather than the key factors that lead to disasters. On the surface, 'technology' is not a problem like global warming. Don't forget to share your experience!

However, the fact may not be so.


The first step is to identify the problem. We need to calmly acknowledge that the wave of technology is coming, and if we don't significantly change our current path, we will be in a predicament. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! There are two paths before us: either to strive to deal with the series of positive and negative consequences caused by sustained openness and unrestrained pursuit, or to bear the dystopian and authoritarian risks that may arise from our attempts to curb the spread of powerful technology (such risks are inevitable in the highly concentrated ownership of technology). What do you think about this?


We must make a decision. Ultimately, we need to seek a balance based on extensive consultation, and of course, the higher the level of public attention, the better. If this book can provoke criticism, debate, suggestions, and counter suggestions, then the more the better. Don't forget to share your experience!


A group of smart people hiding in a secret location cannot have a magical solution. The situation is exactly the opposite. Don't forget to share your experience!


The current elite tend to avoid pessimistic emotions and are afraid to confront the dangers we face. They are willing to express their opinions and argue privately, but are less willing to discuss openly. Don't forget to share your experience! They are accustomed to a world full of control and order, such as CEOs controlling companies, central bank governors deciding interest rates, government officials responsible for military procurement, or urban planners deciding which road potholes to repair. Their control methods are certainly not perfect, but they are known, tested, and usually effective. But here, the situation is not like that. What do you think about this?


Now is a critical moment. The wave of technology is really coming, but it hasn't submerged us yet. Although the overall trend has been determined, the final form of the wave, which is the specific dilemma we will face, has not yet been determined. We cannot waste decades waiting for the results to be revealed. We should start dealing with it immediately. What do you think about this?


In the next chapter, I will outline 10 areas that need to be focused on. This is not a detailed guide, let alone the final answer, but a necessary foundation. My goal is to stimulate thinking and take a crucial first step towards curbing the wave of technology. The commonality of the viewpoints I have put forward is that they all focus on marginal benefits, that is, increasing the probability of ideal outcomes by slowly and continuously aggregating small results. Our goal is to change the environment for technology development and application, including finding ways to buy time, slow down the pace, provide space for in-depth research on answers, attract public attention, establish alliances, and promote technological work. Have you tried this before? Share your story!


I believe that I've found that it's impossible to effectively curb the upcoming technological wave in the current environment. However, through these measures, we may be able to change the underlying conditions and gradually alter the status quo, thus creating possibilities for curbing the wave of technology. We should clearly recognize that although it may fail, this is the best opportunity to build a world where technological waves can be effectively contained and human prosperity and development can be achieved. Don't forget to share your experience!

There is no foolproof guarantee, and we cannot easily achieve success. Anyone who expects a quick solution and seeks simple answers will definitely be disappointed. In the face of this dilemma, we can only adopt a consistent stance: make every effort and expect the best results. What do you think about this?